The term economic forecast describes the estimation of future changes in economic conditions. Economic forecasts are a crucial tool for making economic policy and business decisions. The concept of output that is most often forecasted is gross domestic product (GDP), which represents the monetary value of all finished goods and services produced within a nation’s borders. Almost all developed nations maintain sets of national income accounts and make GDP forecasts. Other elements of GNP are also subject to forecasting efforts, notably private investment spending, which is particularly prone to boom and bust cycles.

There are several methods of economic forecast, ranging from the simple to the complex. The most straightforward approach involves the use of historical time series data and simple mathematical formulas to form statistical forecasting equations, which are then estimated using actual historical data. Despite its simplicity, this approach to economic forecast is commonly used because it provides reliable results. In more advanced approaches, economists attempt to provide justification for their forecasts based on the logical substance of general explanations of economic behavior.

Global growth is expected to slow this year and next as elevated tariff costs, higher interest rates, and withdrawal of government support weigh on activity. Underlying inflation is falling across most regions, but remains high in the United States as rising delinquency rates on credit cards and auto loans constrain consumer spending. Mexico will stall this year as elevated trade barriers limit imports and high interest rates raise debt-servicing costs, while Brazil faces a slowdown in investment and household demand ahead of elections in 2026.